Goals and Methods of Estimating Energy Security Indicator Thresholds in Forecasts
Abstract: This article considers the possibility of increasing the significance of long-term forecasts of the development of the FEC by taking into account the influence of its various industries on energy security (ES). This estimate is made using an integrated index which characterize the degree of deviation of specific ES indicators from their thresholds. Indicators characterizing the economic aspect of ES, which set depend on the considered perspective are proposed. Different methods of determining the maximal allowed values of the indicators are considered. Experimental calculation results are provided showing the interdependency of these values. It is showcased that the indicative analysis of thresholds must be preceded by the estimation of strategic ES threats and detecting the stable behavior region of the main forecast indicators. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2024. ISSN 1075-7007, Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2024, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 72–79. Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2024. Russian Text c The Author(s), 2024.
Библиографическая ссылка
Kononov Y.D. Goals and Methods of Estimating Energy Security Indicator Thresholds in Forecasts // Studies on Russian Economic Development. Vol.35. №1. 2024. P.72-79. DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724010064
